Logistics and Kazakhstan reshape global supply flows/
Lentils Panel at Qingdao Pulses Congress

North American supplies are expected to remain ample, with the US and Canada carrying significant stocks into the new season and prices under pressure. Canada’s wet harvest is raising concerns over red lentil quality, while Australia is heading toward a potentially strong crop of around 2.2 million tons, supported by favorable moisture in southern growing regions. However, El Niño, currency strength and competition from wheat and canola could influence both production outcomes and farmer selling. Australian growers have substantial on-farm storage capacity, allowing them to hold lentils when prices are unattractive. Turkey, meanwhile, is entering the season with an estimated 80,000–100,000 tons of imported stocks, while disruptions to Russian and Kazakh export routes are making physical availability more difficult despite adequate global production.

Kazakhstan has emerged as one of the most significant changes in the lentil trade, particularly for China and Turkey. Its 2026 lentil crop is estimated at around 380,000–400,000 tons, overwhelmingly red lentils, while green lentil production has fallen sharply following last season’s oversupply. Improved harvest conditions have also resulted in better-than-usual quality, with some initial lots reportedly approaching Canadian standards. In China, green lentil imports could reach around 50,000 tons this year, compared with 25,000 tons last year, with Kazakhstan now the dominant origin after entering the market in late 2025. Prices as low as around $310/ton delivered to the Alashankou border have made Kazakh lentils particularly competitive, while trucking and rail links provide a logistical advantage over more distant origins. The panel also stressed that freight volatility itself has become a major market risk, with unreliable container rates and access making it harder for traders to manage costs and long-term contracts. In India, meanwhile, red lentils remain closely linked to the relative prices of other pulses, while green lentils can substitute for pigeon peas in institutional tenders. Together, these dynamics point to logistics, relative commodity prices and weather as the factors most likely to drive lentil markets over the coming months.

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