Dry Peas Panel at Qingdao Pulses Congress/
Black Sea disruption puts a floor under prices

The global dry peas market is entering a period of tighter logistics and increasingly price-sensitive supply. Russia expects another large crop of around 4.8–4.9 million tons, but Black Sea disruptions are severely limiting export routes, with direct rail to China and shipments through alternative ports unable to replace normal bulk flows. Russia’s export costs through Baltic routes are estimated to be around $50–60 per ton higher than from Novorossiysk, while Chinese buyers are increasingly valuing Canada’s more predictable logistics and payment terms alongside price. Kazakhstan is also expanding as a regional supplier, with yellow pea production estimated at around 195,000 tons and export potential of approximately 125,000 tons, supported by growing demand from China and Afghanistan.

At the same time, producers across Canada, the United States, Australia and Argentina are resisting lower prices as competing crops offer better returns. Canadian yellow pea acreage is down around 17%, while farmers are reluctant to sell below current levels and are prepared to hold stocks. Argentina’s green pea area could fall by more than 30%, with low prices pushing farmers toward wheat, corn and soybeans, while Australia faces continued pressure on pea acreage from competing pulses such as lentils. China, which imported around 1.91 million tons of yellow peas last year, remains a major demand center, with Russia currently supplying about 60% of imports and Canada gaining ground following the removal of additional tariffs. India is also well supplied, with substantial domestic stocks and imports in transit, suggesting limited urgency unless Black Sea disruption persists. Overall, panelists saw prices as near their lows, with the potential for modest increases in the coming months if logistics remain constrained and farmers continue to hold back supply.

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