August 20, 2024
The industry analyst shares her take on the upcoming harvest ahead of GPC’s members-only North America peas and lentils webinar on September 5, in which she will participate as moderator.
Marlene Boersch will moderate GPC’s North American peas and lentils webinar on September 5. Interested in attending? This event is exclusively for GPC members. Get a 30-day free trial and you’ll be able to attend the webinar. Plus, enjoy all the benefits of being a GPC member!
I think last year we had around 2.6 MMT, but I think we will have around 3.2 MMT this year given decent yields. However, we've struggled with root rot on both types of peas the last several years which is why it has been hard to increase acres. In mid-July we saw crop condition ratings fall from 87% to 70% good/excellent – so that suggests to me that there are some issues with the crops due to weather conditions.
For lentils we had 1.8 MMT last year, but I think we're looking at 2.4 MMT this year. What we don't know right now is the quality – particularly for green lentils and green peas, as if we get heavy rainfalls before the harvest they could certainly make a difference.
I think we'll do about 500,000 MT of lentils into India this year, and I project 650,000 MT next year because we will have a big crop. They mostly buy reds, but they also buy some twos and threes green lentils from us as a replacement for pigeon peas. Turkey has been a bit of a conundrum because in 2022/23 we did 567,000 MT, but this year I think I have the mint for 175,000 MT. They've been taking some from Russia and Kazakhstan, which is a bit of a wake-up call, but we also had less volumes. That meant we weren't exactly the cheapest origin for next year.
I'd say next year will see between 225,000-250,000 MT to Turkey, then around 200,000 MT into the UAE. It also depends on what comes from Australia – the lentil market fascinates me because Australia has increased production by about a million tons over the last three years and the market has just absorbed it. It's incredible to think that because there are not many major exporters, and yet the market has cheerfully absorbed the increase without taking hits on values. There has to be a very good demand picture to be able to increase that level without a major hiccup.
I think there's been an overall increase equivalently across many countries, such as India, Turkey (as exporters into the Middle East), then Syria and Iran who are very important. Pakistan and Bangladesh have also been strong in terms of demand.
There's been a big increase in chickpea acres – last year we had around 142,000 MT, but opinions range on this year's crop between 280,000-320,000 MT. In the drier areas in the Palliser Triangle of southern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, that's the pulse they can grow and with the prices high they decided to put some acres in. I wouldn't be surprised if we manage around 300,000 MT, but I'm always a bit cautious because back in the 90s we had some complete flop due to disease and rains, so we'll have to stay tuned on that one.
Canada peas / Canadian peas / lentil / red lentil / kabuli chickpea / Canada chickpea / Canada harvest 2024 / Marlene Boersch / Mercantile Consulting Venture.
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