Exclusive Pulse Atlas data maps a steady decline in global kabuli chickpea production since 2018, which showed production hit 5-year highs. Threats of a shortage since the outbreak of war in Ukraine have been well documented both on the Pulse Pod and in mainstream media due to intense competition from other commodities such as wheat and sunflower. Low carry-in stocks have played a significant role in kabuli trade at many origins and continue to be a factor. This year, however, it seems that global supplies will start trending up due to boosted production in many of the main producing regions. 

While Mexico is predicted to see production down 25% with scarce carry-in putting further pressure on export potential, the USA, Canada, Turkey, India and Argentina are all looking at an increase in production year-on-year with Russia’s kabuli volumes expected to hit record highs. 

The Pulse Atlas: Kabuli numbers

• Russia’s seeded area jumped from 285 thousand hectares in 2022 to 480 thousand in 2023 and production is estimated at 450 thousand MT.
• Canadian production is up from 2022 to 161 thousand MT but with carry-in at virtually zero, its export potential is significantly down year-on-year. 
• Despite USA seeded area going back up to 2018 levels at 340 thousand hectares, lower yields mean production is estimated at less than half the volumes of the 5-year high, at 203 thousand MT compared to 508 thousand MT.    
  
  

Insider Insights

Navneet Chhabra, Global Garbanzo

“Now in the market, there is a big difference in price between bigger & smaller sizes. Algeria tenders increased the market in Mexico and India and have made the market for bigger calibers very firm. If more Algeria tenders come in the next few days, the price will increase more. Because of high prices for big calibers, people will opt for 8 or 9mm; Algeria’s recent tender requested a quotation for 9mm for the first time because prices are so high for bigger sizes.”

“We need to see how the Turkish harvest ended - we’re expecting around 280-300K MT. They’ll be the cheapest this year but the export quota will impact the market. If the US and Canada come with good production, prices will maybe soften a little but not much because the carry-in is so small. Production volumes are not large enough to make a big impact on the market.”

“We also need to look at yields in Canada and the US. In Turkey also, last week it was reported in Anatolia that the big sizes (9 mm) are not getting in normal percentages, but we need to see what happens when the the harvest completes in the coming days. Everything is mixed now. Huge prices might make India and Mexico increase their seeded area in Oct/Nov, but I doubt it as the last two years we’ve had high prices but not much change in areas; other commodities are still too competitive.”

“Now in the market, there is a big difference in price between sizes. Algeria tenders increased the market in Mexico and India and have made the market for bigger calibers very firm. If more Algeria tenders come in the next days, the price will increase more. Because of high prices for big calibers, people will opt for 8 or 9mm; Algeria imported 9mm for the first time because prices are so high.”

VIEW ALL PULSE ATLAS KABULI DATA