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The second of Brazil’s three annual dry bean crops is presently entering the market. In its May crop report, CONAB (Brazil’s National Supply Company) estimated production at 1,394,100 MT, with the following breakdown by commercial class: carioca beans (698,300 MT); black beans (258,600 MT); and cowpeas (437,000 MT). 

Compared to last year’s second crop, production was up significantly for carioca (+46%) and black (+44%) beans, but down for cowpeas (-22%). Most of Brazil’s carioca and black beans are consumed domestically; most of its cowpeas, on the other hand, are exported.

Second crop carioca and black bean production was greater than last year on increased plantings and higher yields. Growers seeded more second crop beans this year in response to poor first crop production. The first crop, which was harvested in December and January, suffered significant losses due to adverse weather conditions. Carioca bean production, for instance, was down 30% and black bean production was down 14% compared to the first crop of 2017/18. 

The second crop appears to have more than made up for those losses. CONAB is projecting a 6% increase in total carioca bean production for 2018/19. Of course, that will depend in good measure on the accuracy of CONAB’s third crop projection. The third dry bean crop is presently being planted, and its projected carioca production accounts for roughly one-third of the total. 

In any event, markets have begun to react to the arrival of new crop. In the first week of May, the carioca bean wholesale price in São Paulo dropped sharply to 206.50 from 270 BRL/kg the previous week. In the case of black beans, wholesale prices in São Paulo held steady at 172.50 BRL/kg, but are expected to decrease as the second crop continues entering the market. 

CONAB is estimating overall 2018/19 black bean production will be up 7% over the previous cycle. Third crop black bean production is minimal, and therefore, with the second crop now harvested, the 2018/19 black bean supply is locked in.   

Supply-Demand Outlook

CONAB estimates Brazil’s total 2018/19 dry bean supply at 3.5 million MT, consisting of 3.1 million MT of domestic production and 130,000 MT of imports, with carry-in from 2017/18 accounting for the rest. 

Since 2010, Brazil’s annual dry bean consumption has remained mostly in the 3.3-3.6 million MT range. For this year, with exports expected to amount to about 140,000 MT, CONAB projects carry-out at 275,400 MT, which would be roughly the equivalent of one month’s internal consumption. 

Snapshot of Brazil’s 2019/20 Dry Bean Crops

Source: CONAB