Urad Outlook

In the Urad session, Mr B Krishna Murthy, Managing Director at Four P International, gave important insights into the urad crop as well as stocks and consumption figures. He cited the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare as his source for most of the numbers.

• Urad sowing was the same or slightly higher than last year. It is grown in both kharif and rabi but the kharif crop contributes to around two thirds of the total crop size
• Crop size has been steadily increasing over the past few years to meet domestic demand and number have almost doubled in the past ten years  
• The government has also been steadily increasing the MSP, which was at 6,300 Rs. per quintal this year

Sowing areas

• As of August 19, the total area sown was 37.06 lakh hectares, almost the same as the previous year. 
• Just over a month previously (around July 16), sowing of urad was trailing by a huge 23%, but now it’s been made up
• MP is leading the sowing with more than 40%, then UP at 18%, Maharashtra and Rajasthan with 11% each and Gujarat at 4%
  
  

Stock status: Myanmar

• Myanmar has a carry-over of approx. 75,000 tons. It produced nearly 4 lakh 25,000 tons this year, making total stock available for exports at 5 lakh tons.
• Myanmar has no domestic consumption of urad
• Until August 18, Myanmar had exported 3 lakh 60,000 tons, meaning there are only 1 lakh 40,000 tons left
• 40,000 tons of those exports come from India alone, meaning there is not much left and Myanmar also exports to other countries such as Dubai, Bangladesh and Pakistan
• This stock status is considered very low for Myanmar as the harvest is estimated to happen only in February 2022, almost 6 months away 
• The limit on imports from Myanmar into India was lifted in May and will continue to be open until October 31. India has already imported 2 lakh tonnes in just 3 months
  
  

Stock status: India

• At the beginning of kharif 2020, the carry-over was estimated at 4 lakh tons, held by both the public and private sectors
• In the crop year 2021/22, India is estimated to have produced 16 lakh tones during kharif and 7 lakh 50,000 tons in rabi, making for an estimated total of 23 lakh 50,000 tons
•  This means total stock available for consumption will be approx. 30 lakh 50,000 tons, taking into account the estimated imports from Myanmar.
• It is estimated that India is carrying 3 lakh 70,000 tonnes held by both public and private players. 

Consumption

• During the last crop year, the consumption figure was 26 lakh 75,000 tons, around 2 lakh 20,000 tons per month
• The questions stands as to is there enough stocks for the crop year 2021/22 bearing in mind reports of standing crops being infested with disease in one of the major producing centres in MP
• This year, sowing was good at 37 lakh hectares. Monsoon has been average and so we should be harvesting a good crop in the kharif season
• However, the weather may change towards the end of the monsoon season, which could cause a threat to standing crops and cause prices to spike
• Urad is currently being sold at 7700 Rs per quintal, which is almost the same as last year 
• Prices may go up as crops at hand are not plentiful but if the weather is good, things should be fine
  

Mung Bean outlook 

In this session, Mr. Punit Bachhawat Managing Director Prakash Agro Mills, shared his insights into the mung bean scenario and consumption patterns in India and the sowing analysis for kharif 2021/22.

Sowing area

• In general, a total area of 4.5 million hectares of mung beans are sown, with a total production, under normal conditions, of 2.5 million tons: an average of 548kg per hectare. Mung beans contribute to 10% of India’s total pulse production.
• In the crop year 2021/22, an estimated 33.99 lakh hectares were sown, a 0.15% decrease compared to 2020/21 (figures as of August 19, 2021)
  
  

Production

• The total production of this crop year is estimated to be 1.99 million tons, compared to 2.22 million tons in 2020/21 and 2.10 in 2019/20
• The drop in production is mostly due to the decreased rainfall in Rajasthan; despite the monsoons arriving on time, there was a large gap in rains, which dashed hopes for a big crop
• The MSP for mung beans has been increased to Rs. 7500, causing it to be cultivated on a large scale in Maharashtra and Karnataka as well as other regions

Consumption

• Consumption this year is up 18% from last year, going from 1.91 million tons to an estimated 2.25 million tons. Last year, consumption was decreased due to lockdowns.
• Average consumption per capita is 48g, which the government intends to increase to 60g, meaning there will be an almost 25% increase in demand over the next years
  
  

Imports

• Imports are expected to be around 1.40 lakh tons for the crop year 2021/22, up from 0.97 lakh tons last year and 1.25 in 2019/2020
• As of July 2021, a total of 38,000 MT had been imported, compared to 6,000 MT at that period in the previous year. This is largely due to mung beans, along with urad and tur, being given free import status from May 15 to October 31 2021
  
  

Carry-over

• Opening stock for the crop year 2021/22 was 0/9 lakh tons held by government agencies and 2.5 lakh tons held by traders and miller. The total carry-over of mung beans has been increasing at a rate of approx. 4% year on year. 
  

Monsoons

• The initial forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department was 94-106% but as per data at the end of August, there was a 9% rainfall deficiency
• The deficiency reached up to 60% in Rajasthan and Gujarat
• Early monsoon rains in Rajasthan meant farmers sowed their mung beans on time but the dry patch in the monsoon season coincided with the germination stage
• Rajasthan contributes around 70% of the kharif crop and the poor rainfall badly affected the crop, which is why it is greatly reduced this year
• Trade experts expect a yield loss of between 20% and 25% in Rajasthan
• Rabi sowing will also be affected by the low rainfall

Prices

• Due to the plentiful summer crop of around 2.5 lakh tons plus new arrivals in Maharashtra and Karnataka, there has been pressure on prices, which have decreased by almost Rs. 1000 per quintal 
• When Rajasthan arrivals start, prices should start to increase and are expected to reach Rs. 6500-7000 per quintal
• Equally, the MSP is increasing, going from Rs. 7050 per quintal in 2019/20 to Rs. 7196 per quintal in 2020/21 to Rs. 7275 per quintal in 2021/22, and this combined with decreasing stock arrival in the new season will also push up prices
  
  

Tuar Outlook

In this session, Mr. Nitin Kalantri, CEO of Kalantri Food Products, shared his insights into the tur crop for kharif 2021/22.

Overview

• Monsoon rains were very erratic and so were the government policies
• Rains in the later part of the maturing stage damaged crops and output was hit in Karnataka, Telangana and some parts of Maharashtra so the government estimate, as of the 4th advance estimate on August 16, is that production will be 42.8 lakh tons
• Mr. Kalantri himself said he felt production should not be more than 37 lakh tons, which can be seen in the increased prices, which throughout the season were on average Rs. 6700-6800, with the highest point at Rs. 7200-7300 and the lowest point Rs. 6200-6300
  
  

Sowing

• This year, as of August 19, sowing of tur was 46.88 lakh hectares, compared to 46.8 last year and the 5 year average of 45.64 
• The Ministry of Agriculture’s sowing data seems to be correct but Mr. Kalantri’s ground report showed tur sowing should be less than 5-7% because of higher prices of soy, cotton and sugar 
• Rains in Gujarat have also hampered sowing slightly
• It is important that farmers get lucrative prices for all pulses because other competing grains are fetching better prices, not only in India but in the international markets. Farmers must be incentivised farmers to sow and produce pulses to prevent a long term shortage
  
  

Yields

• Rains have been erratic with varied distribution but crop prospects are very good good until now
• Rains will be needed at a later stage before flowering and colder weather will be needed after that
• It’s too early to estimate but if the weather is good, Kalantri expect yields to be in the range of 39-40 lakh tons, which is more than last year

Imports

• Tur, along with mung beans and urad, has been given free import status in India, from May 15 to October 31 2021, after 3 years of restricted imports
• All carry-in that was in Myanmar has started being shipped into India but the reduced availability of containers is making things difficult
• Kalantri believes that from May 15 until now, around 77,000 tons have been imported from Africa and Myanmar into India and until November 30 (the last date for the imports under the free import status) he expects a total of 2-2.25 lakh tons from both countries
• India has signed bi-lateral agreements with the governments of Mozambique, Malawi and Myanmar but  other, more lucrative crops are being sown in these countries so India needs to be increasingly dependent on domestic crops and not import too much to prevent a rise in prices
  
  

Carry-over

• The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED - the biggest stockist currently in the market) should be carrying around 2.6-2.75 lakh tons
• In the private sector, carry-over is expected to be 6.5 lakh tons 
• Imported stock which arrived before the lift of the import restrictions is estimated at between 0.75 - 1 lakh tons. 
• Farmers too are holding back stock in some instances due to high market prices of other crops, for example, soybeans. They are holding an estimate of around 10% of their stock.