Trade Talk

January 21, 2026

A Mexican kabuli outlook for 2026/
A seeding slowdown, missing markets, and the downside of a strong and stable peso

A Mexican kabuli outlook for 2026: A Mexican kabuli outlook for 2026 / A seeding slowdown, missing markets, and the downside of a strong and stable peso

Luke Wilkinson

Head Writer

At a glance


  • Mexican chickpea seedings are back to near-normal levels in 2026, following last year’s unusually large expansion.
  • Carry-in stocks from 2025 are cushioning the acreage reduction, keeping overall supply broadly aligned with annual demand.
  • Demand remains steady but selective, with slower buying from North Africa offset by continued interest from the Middle East.

Hi David, great to see you again! Tell us about the delayed chickpea seedings this year – what’s behind the later planting? 

Seeding dates are delayed on average by around a month nowadays when you compare to how things used to be. These aren’t extraordinary weather phenomena to be honest – It’s just global warming and the dates being pushed back. 

Another factor is that Sinaloa farmers prefer to grow corn – it's the most seeded crop in the state and they usually grow 400,000 hectares (ha). Depending on water availability and financial situations, farmers may switch corn areas suitable over to chickpeas. If financing is tight for farmers, then they will move to some hectares over to other commodities. It means that everything is delayed now until the very last minute to see if they can negotiate something with corn or get financing.


Typically Sinaloa will plant around 70,000 ha of chickpeas, which is a huge amount less than corn. The swing of extra hectares can sometimes be 10,000 ha more or 10,000 ha less, or it can be 20,000 ha like last year.

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Mexican chickpea hectares are down 25-30% this year, but carry in should help compensate.  

Mexico is expected to produce around 150 KMT of chickpeas this season, with steady demand led by Middle Eastern buyers.

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