October 24, 2024
Gaurav Jain reports on the interesting volume difference between figures released by PIRSA and ABARES on red lentil production in South Australia.
On September 30, 2024, Primary Industries and Regions South Australia (PIRSA) published its September report detailing the estimated grain production figures for South Australia in the 2024/25 crop year. According to PIRSA's estimates, the total grain production for the upcoming year is projected to be 5.9 million tonnes. This figure stands in stark contrast to the forecast provided by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), which anticipates a much higher grain production total of 7.9 million tons for the same crop year.
Focusing specifically on lentils, PIRSA has estimated production for South Australia at 428 thousand metric tonnes (MT) for 2024/25. In comparison, ABARES has projected a significantly larger output of 860 thousand MT. This results in a difference of 432 thousand MT, with ABARES forecasting nearly double the lentil production estimated by PIRSA.
Interestingly, this pattern of ABARES projecting a considerably higher lentil production than PIRSA is not limited to the 2024/25 crop year; it has been observed across multiple marketing years. This recurring trend raises important questions regarding the methodologies employed by both organizations in their projections, as well as the factors influencing their estimates.
Stakeholders in the agricultural sector, including farmers, investors, and policymakers, may need to consider these disparities carefully when making decisions related to crop planning, resource allocation, and market strategies for the upcoming year.
The extremely poor soil moisture profile across cropping regions in South Australia this season has indeed created significant challenges for agriculture. This issue is compounded by similar difficulties in Victoria, especially in the Wimmera region, which is another major area for lentil production. As the harvest approaches, the true impact of these adverse conditions will become clearer, with yield numbers expected soon.
The worsening growing conditions have led AgPulse to reduce its yield model's lentil production estimates for Australia, currently projected at 1.17 million metric tons (MMT). Within this figure, South Australia's contribution is estimated to be 507 thousand MT.
As per a poll conducted on WhatsApp group for GPC members, 9 out of 17 respondents voted for a crop estimate of 0.8-1.0 MMT, while 6 out of 17 were more optimistic at 1.0-1.2 MMT.
Australian lentil supplies are crucial for the markets and consumers in South Asia and the MENA region and a reliable figure will help them manage the inventories and risks.
Disclaimer: The opinions or views expressed in this publication are those of the authors or quoted persons. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Global Pulse Confederation or its members.
