Desi chickpea markets/
The outlook on price, production and supply/demand dynamics

Production 

- India: 2023-24 production estimate at 11.04 million MT, down from 12.3 million MT last year due to adverse weather. Weather in 2024 is improved, with monsoon rains up year-on-year in many places although deficient rainfall has been recorded in some chickpea-producing regions. 

- Australia: Expected to produce about 2 million tonnes, a significant increase from previous years (491,000 tonnes last year and 541,000 tonnes the year before, which is fueled by favorable growing conditions. The latest ABARES report from September, however, forecasts only 1.3 million tonnes.

- Tanzania: Anticipated production of 135,000 tonnes of desi chickpeas. 

- Russian: According to trade sources, production of desis is estimated at around 50,000 tonnes, which is supplying Pakistan in place of subdued shipments from Tanzania. 

Pricing 

• As of September 26, Australian Desi chickpeas from (Nov/Dec shipments) are priced at $800 / ton CNF for shipments to India, a 1% increase from $795 / ton CNF the previous week.
• Prices were $840 / ton CNF for shipments to Bangladesh and $890 / ton CNF to Nepal, both reflecting declines of 4% compared to four-week averages.
• The Indian domestic market has seen declines. Prices are currently INR 7,925 per quintal in Delhi and INR 7,725 per quintal in Bikaner, reflecting a 1-2% decline on average.
• This decline in prices can also be traced back to improved local arrivals, which surged by 62%, reaching 29,741 MT during the week of September 21-27.
   

International supply dynamics

• The Australian market has reported a stabilizing new crop, although quantities are expected to remain limited until November. This has led to concerns about fulfilling demand, especially as global consumption patterns shift. 
• The reduction in stocks from Australia could lead to increased reliance on other markets, potentially driving up prices if demand remains strong.
• Port congestion in Tanzania is also a concern and may cause some logistical issues, limiting exports. 
  
  

Factors influencing demand

• Traders anticipate that chickpea prices may experience an upward trend driven by strong festive and seed demand, alongside the remunerative price levels observed earlier in the year.
• Prices of black matpe have increased in recent weeks, causing consumers to turn to alternative pulses like chickpeas for their dietary needs.