January 29, 2026
Brian Clancey, Owner of Stat Publishing, discusses the India/US trade concessions, Canada’s immense overstocks, and why he thinks depressed pulse prices have finally hit their bottom.
Canada’s pea carryover is expected to reach record levels in 2026, with ending stocks estimated at around 1.1 MMT — roughly a third of a year’s supply.
“We’re probably in a situation where we're beginning to see pulse prices stabilize, with most major pulses adopting a modest upward trend. More than likely, pulse production globally is going to decline this year – particularly in net exporting countries – resulting in decreased competition for demand, which typically means an improvement in pricing.
The world is in the process of working through excess pulse supply. It's going to take a while to get through that, but it will be worked through, and I think we're probably done with prices crashing. How fast the upward trend moves depends on seeded areas and yields this year.
For some commodities, production needs to drop dramatically to bring available supplies in line with prospective demand. Look at Canada for peas and lentils; carryover is probably going to hit record levels this year, and that could persist into 2027. There is a chance that ending stocks for lentils will be 1.3 MMT – almost 50% of normal usage, so six months supply carried over. For peas, it's a little less, at around 1.1 MMT – about a third of a year's supply."
“I don't think the recent agreement between China and Canada will have a big impact this marketing year. I am thinking exports for 2025/26 to the Pacific Rim (including India and China) have the potential to be up over last season.
Next season, I suspect exports to the region will decrease because India will more than likely bring down its imports. It seems we’re in a situation where residual stocks have to return to a more reasonable level, possibly ending at about a quarter every year — between 2 ½ and 3 months access. With stocks at these levels — and if farm prices remain depressed — we could be on a downward trend for area in Canada unless demand picks up.
From those numbers, you can see there is plenty of room for production to come down.”
READ THE FULL ARTICLEIndia’s pulse imports are expected to moderate through 2026–2027 as domestic availability rises and residual stocks — particularly peas — weigh on new buying.
Global pulse trade / Pea market outlook / India pulse imports / Canada pulse stocks / Lentil market 2026 / Pulse price outlook
Disclaimer: The opinions or views expressed in this publication are those of the authors or quoted persons. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Global Pulse Confederation or its members.
